Texas State @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Thu, Oct 3, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

2-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Troy

1-4 · Power #97

final

Closing spread

TXST -14.5

✓ TXST W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 36–23 TROY

✓ TXST (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -14.5

CloseTXST -14.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -14.5

no move

CloseTXST -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -14.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -5.5

model TXST -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 57% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -14.5

CloseTXST -14.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 14.5-point road favorite at TROY, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 12.5; 59.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-14	41–7	W	U56
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	ORST @ COLO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	32–31	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST –WLL	1-2	33%	—	1-2
TROY LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; TROY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST –OOO	3-0	100%	2-2
TROY OUOUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 1 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TXST 0–1 TROY TROY leads · 1 game since 2023 · TROY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Troy 31 @ Texas State 13	TROY -6.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−3.2 →−0.4▲ 2.8#68

TROY+2.8 →−7.7▼ 10.5#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TXST

Longer bar = better

TROY

#44

Offense

◀ TXST better

#82

#59

Defense

◀ TXST better

#101

−0.8 #110

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

−0.2 #84

74 plays #10

Pace

◀ TXST faster

58 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #22	25.8 #84	TXST
Yards / play	6.13 #56	6.08 #103	TXST
PPA / play	+0.21 #48	+0.18 #104	TXST
Success rate	45% #49	46% #114	TXST

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	TROY off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #112	27.0 #91	TXST
Yards / play	5.77 #80	4.68 #28	TXST
PPA / play	+0.20 #51	+0.09 #75	TROY
Success rate	42% #83	37% #41	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	14.5 #4	12.0 #26	26.5 #6	6.0 #75	5.0 #102	11.0 #99
TROY allowed	3.2 #31	6.6 #58	9.8 #48	9.0 #119	7.0 #88	16.0 #115

TROY scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.4 #110	7.6 #79	11.0 #100	4.0 #109	6.4 #74	10.4 #107
TXST allowed	2.5 #19	8.8 #95	11.3 #65	9.3 #122	6.5 #77	15.8 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.