Arkansas State @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

3-2 · Power #113

final

Final

Texas State

3-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -13.5

✓ TXST W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 23–37 TXST

✓ TXST (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -14.5

CloseTXST -13.5

Total63.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -14.5

1 → ARST

CloseTXST -13.5

1 pt toward Arkansas State

Total

Open63.5

▲ 3

Close66.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -14.5 · closed TXST -13.5 · moved 1 toward ARSTmodel TXST -15

model TXST -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 48% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -14.5

CloseTXST -13.5

Total63.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 13.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 41–9; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 66.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 14.7; 62.6 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Very close	SMU vs TULN 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	55–26	W	O70.5
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	UTSA vs USF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	49–21	W	O66.5
Close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-14.5	6–22	L	U59
Close	WAKE vs DUKE 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	45–7	W	U71.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST –L–LW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
TXST –WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST –U–OU	1-2	33%	3-2
TXST –OOOU	3-1	75%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 37% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARST 1–0 TXST ARST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Texas State 31 @ Arkansas State 77	TXST -3	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−9.2▼ 1.6#105

TXST−3.2 →+2.2▲ 5.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARST

Longer bar = better

TXST

#114

Offense

TXST better ▶

#40

#119

Defense

TXST better ▶

#46

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.8 #115

72 plays #19

Pace

Even

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	ARST off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #114	25.0 #78	TXST
Yards / play	4.78 #125	4.76 #23	TXST
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	+0.05 #49	TXST
Success rate	36% #122	37% #34	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #23	30.2 #100	TXST
Yards / play	6.26 #44	6.66 #128	TXST
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	+0.24 #119	TXST
Success rate	46% #41	49% #127	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	3.2 #120	2.6 #132	5.8 #134	6.2 #72	9.0 #34	15.2 #44
TXST allowed	2.0 #9	9.0 #93	11.0 #59	8.8 #119	5.2 #51	14.0 #99

TXST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	14.4 #4	12.4 #15	26.8 #5	6.8 #66	4.0 #123	10.8 #106
ARST allowed	4.8 #62	9.6 #98	14.4 #93	6.2 #80	9.6 #123	15.8 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.