Southern Miss @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-4 · Power #132

final

Final

UL Monroe

4-1 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

ULM -4.5

✓ ULM W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 19–25 ULM

✓ ULM (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenULM -6

CloseULM -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenULM -6

1.5 → USM

CloseULM -4.5

1.5 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ULM -6 · closed ULM -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward USMmodel ULM -9.5

model ULM -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenULM -6

CloseULM -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ULM as a 4.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 5; 45.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Very close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	38–28	W	O47
Close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Close	BUFF vs MASS 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–3	W	U45.5
Close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	41–14	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LW–LW	2-2	50%	0-2	1-2
ULM WWLWW	4-1	80%	3-0	1-0

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; ULM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UU–UU	0-4	0%	1-4
ULM UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
ULM	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USM 1–0 ULM USM leads · 1 game since 2023 · USM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	UL Monroe 7 @ Southern Miss 24	USM -3	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−10.1 →−17.6▼ 7.5#128

ULM−17.3 →−11.0▲ 6.3#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

USM

Longer bar = better

ULM

#113

Offense

Even

#120

#111

Defense

ULM better ▶

#60

−1.8 #135

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+0.4 #53

50 plays #137

Pace

Even

56 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: ULM defense

	USM off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #129	19.8 #40	ULM
Yards / play	5.60 #89	5.02 #40	ULM
PPA / play	−0.05 #127	+0.04 #48	ULM
Success rate	39% #105	45% #111	Even

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #119	31.4 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.47 #130	6.15 #108	USM
PPA / play	+0.05 #107	+0.22 #114	Even
Success rate	36% #125	45% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USM scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.3 #86	8.5 #67	13.8 #76	1.8 #129	4.3 #120	6.0 #130
ULM allowed	7.4 #107	4.6 #26	12.0 #67	3.2 #19	4.6 #39	7.8 #22

ULM scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	2.6 #126	6.8 #95	9.4 #115	3.8 #114	6.6 #79	10.4 #110
USM allowed	8.5 #122	10.5 #114	19.0 #119	10.0 #129	2.5 #6	12.5 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.