Arkansas State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

3-3 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

ARST -7

✓ ARST W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 31–24 USM

✓ ARST (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -6.5

CloseARST -7

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -6.5

0.5 → ARST

CloseARST -7

0.5 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -6.5 · closed ARST -7 · moved 0.5 toward ARSTmodel ARST -6.5

model ARST -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -6.5

CloseARST -7

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 7-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 44–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 7.7; 58.6 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USU @ TEM 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	29–45	L	O53.5
Very close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Very close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Very close	OHIO @ AKR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.75	34–17	W	U55
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	M-OH @ AKR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	27–9	W	U51.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	49–21	W	O54
Close	WMU @ BALL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	COLO @ CSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–9	W	U58.5
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	41–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST L–LWL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1
USM W–LWL	2-3	40%	2-0	1-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST U–OUU	1-3	25%	3-3
USM U–UUO	1-4	20%	1-5

Went over in Q3. Of 266 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%
USM	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARST 1–0 USM ARST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Southern Miss 37 @ Arkansas State 44	USM -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−10.8▼ 3.2#111

USM−10.1 →−18.8▼ 8.7#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARST

Longer bar = better

USM

#117

Offense

Even

#115

#127

Defense

Even

#117

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−1.8 #137

72 plays #16

Pace

◀ ARST faster

52 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	32.5 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #123	6.29 #119	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.24 #122	Even
Success rate	37% #120	44% #108	Even

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #130	32.0 #113	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #91	6.98 #133	USM
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.30 #130	Even
Success rate	39% #106	51% #133	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	3.2 #119	3.2 #132	6.3 #133	5.2 #83	7.5 #56	12.7 #79
USM allowed	8.2 #122	9.8 #103	18.0 #117	8.6 #122	6.2 #70	14.8 #110

USM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	4.8 #92	7.4 #88	12.2 #94	3.0 #123	4.8 #120	7.8 #127
ARST allowed	6.3 #94	8.5 #85	14.8 #97	7.5 #107	9.7 #122	17.2 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.