Southern Miss @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-6 · Power #132

final

Final

James Madison

5-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -27.5

✓ USM W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 11–39 JMU

✓ JMU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -24

CloseJMU -27.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -24

3.5 → JMU

CloseJMU -27.5

3.5 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -24 · closed JMU -27.5 · moved 3.5 toward JMUmodel JMU -31.5

model JMU -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 52% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -24

CloseJMU -27.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 27.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 32–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.5 against an average line of 26.2; 48.5 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Very close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	JMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-22	63–7	W	O56.5
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	37–0	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM –LWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	1-4
JMU WWLWL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM –UUOO	2-4	33%	1-6
JMU OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
JMU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−10.1 →−20.1▼ 10.0#131

JMU+2.2 →+5.0▲ 2.8#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USM

Longer bar = better

JMU

#110

Offense

JMU better ▶

#53

#117

Defense

JMU better ▶

#12

−2.0 #137

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+2.3 #1

55 plays #136

Pace

JMU faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	USM off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #126	18.0 #21	JMU
Yards / play	5.51 #92	4.84 #19	JMU
PPA / play	−0.03 #124	−0.14 #3	JMU
Success rate	41% #96	34% #4	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #22	34.1 #120	JMU
Yards / play	6.05 #55	6.35 #119	JMU
PPA / play	+0.11 #78	+0.26 #125	JMU
Success rate	44% #58	44% #104	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USM scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.2 #88	8.5 #69	13.7 #81	2.5 #126	5.2 #108	7.7 #129
JMU allowed	5.0 #65	6.4 #48	11.4 #56	3.9 #27	2.7 #5	6.6 #10

JMU scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.6 #16	9.4 #46	19.0 #26	8.3 #28	8.1 #41	16.4 #30
USM allowed	10.3 #131	9.3 #101	19.7 #128	9.3 #127	5.7 #52	15.0 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.