Texas Tech @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

5-2 · Power #46

final

Final

TCU

4-3 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -4.5

✓ TTU W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 30–34 TCU

✓ TCU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6

CloseTCU -4.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -6

1.5 → TTU

CloseTCU -4.5

1.5 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open67.5

▼ 2

Close65.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -6 · closed TCU -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward TTUmodel TCU -6

model TCU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6

CloseTCU -4.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 4.5-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 35–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 65.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 4.1; 60.8 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5
Very close	UCF vs MEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	24–7	W	U63.25
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Very close	NCST vs UNC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	34–30	L	O61.25
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5
Very close	SMU vs MEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–31	L	U68.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU –WLWL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-0
TCU L–WLW	2-4	33%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU –UOUO	3-3	50%	5-2
TCU O–OUU	3-3	50%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
TCU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 1–0 TCU TTU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TTU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2023	TCU 28 @ Texas Tech 35	TTU -2.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+4.7 →+3.0▼ 1.7#56

TCU+7.0 →+6.0▼ 1.0#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TTU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#40

Offense

Even

#45

#112

Defense

TCU better ▶

#61

+0.1 #73

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

−1.4 #131

75 plays #8

Pace

◀ TTU faster

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #18	27.4 #92	TTU
Yards / play	6.15 #50	4.99 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	+0.11 #80	TTU
Success rate	45% #52	39% #39	Even

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #40	36.1 #125	TCU
Yards / play	6.09 #53	6.47 #124	TCU
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	+0.14 #96	TCU
Success rate	46% #33	44% #103	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	11.4 #5	12.4 #11	23.9 #5	5.4 #81	8.4 #33	13.9 #63
TCU allowed	6.4 #96	8.7 #89	15.1 #96	6.4 #85	5.9 #57	12.3 #73

TCU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.4 #82	11.7 #21	17.1 #37	7.1 #53	7.9 #47	15.0 #45
TTU allowed	6.4 #96	10.1 #111	16.6 #111	8.1 #116	10.6 #127	18.7 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.