West Virginia @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

2-2 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

3-2 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

OKST -2.5

✓ WVU W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 29–32 OKST

✗ OKST (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -6.5

CloseOKST -2.5

Total65.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOKST -6.5

4 → WVU

CloseOKST -2.5

4 pts toward West Virginia

Total

Open65.5

▼ 1

Close64.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OKST -6.5 · closed OKST -2.5 · moved 4 toward WVUmodel OKST -3.5

model OKST -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (140 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -6.5

CloseOKST -2.5

Total65.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 2.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 38–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 3; 53.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	UCF vs MEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1.25	24–7	W	U63.25
Close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	45–10	W	U60.5
Close	BSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–41	L	O59
Close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Close	TEX vs OKST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.25	24–32	L	U61
Close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-3	41–19	W	U65
Close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
OKST WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2
OKST OOUUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 42% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
OKST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 0–1 OKST OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Oklahoma State 48 @ West Virginia 34	WVU -3	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+4.6 →+4.2▼ 0.4#48

OKST+4.1 →+4.6▲ 0.5#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WVU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#59

Offense

Even

#68

#103

Defense

Even

#90

−1.3 #127

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.4 #56

66 plays #76

Pace

OKST faster ▶

72 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: WVU offense

	WVU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #59	25.0 #80	WVU
Yards / play	6.26 #51	6.44 #124	WVU
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.11 #82	Even
Success rate	44% #59	41% #74	Even

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #47	28.5 #99	OKST
Yards / play	5.89 #70	6.19 #109	OKST
PPA / play	+0.20 #52	+0.24 #117	OKST
Success rate	40% #103	42% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.0 #55	9.3 #57	16.3 #60	6.0 #79	9.5 #26	15.5 #43
OKST allowed	4.2 #53	7.4 #69	11.6 #62	4.8 #51	8.6 #112	13.4 #93

OKST scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.6 #93	9.0 #59	13.6 #79	7.4 #58	10.8 #12	18.2 #24
WVU allowed	2.5 #20	12.0 #125	14.5 #93	7.0 #91	7.0 #88	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.