Kansas @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff106°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas

1-4 · Power #35

final

Final

Arizona State

3-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -2.5

✓ ASU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 25–27 ASU

✓ ASU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3

CloseASU -2.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -3

0.5 → KU

CloseASU -2.5

0.5 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -3 · closed ASU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward KUmodel ASU -0.5

model ASU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (142 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3

CloseASU -2.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 2.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 2.6; 54 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-2	0-1
ASU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUUOO	2-3	40%	1-4
ASU OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ASU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KU 0–2 ASU ASU leads · 2 games since 2024 · ASU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+5.9▼ 1.3#41

ASU−3.3 →+2.9▲ 6.2#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

ASU

#69

Offense

ASU better ▶

#50

#63

Defense

ASU better ▶

#36

−0.8 #110

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+1.3 #11

66 plays #72

Pace

ASU faster ▶

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	KU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #77	22.0 #56	ASU
Yards / play	6.04 #59	4.32 #9	ASU
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.01 #31	ASU
Success rate	44% #64	39% #47	Even

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #45	23.8 #70	ASU
Yards / play	5.68 #80	5.33 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #48	+0.08 #67	Even
Success rate	47% #27	39% #56	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	5.6 #77	11.4 #32	17.0 #51	7.0 #59	4.0 #116	11.0 #100
ASU allowed	5.3 #76	5.0 #33	10.3 #51	5.3 #64	6.5 #77	11.8 #68

ASU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	8.5 #33	12.8 #15	21.3 #21	9.3 #23	2.3 #133	11.5 #97
KU allowed	4.0 #41	8.2 #85	12.2 #70	2.6 #13	9.0 #116	11.6 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.