Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Fri, Oct 4, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

1-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Kennesaw State

0-4 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

JXST -17.5

✓ JXST W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 33–17 KENN

✓ JXST (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -14

CloseJXST -17.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -14

3.5 → JXST

CloseJXST -17.5

3.5 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -14 · closed JXST -17.5 · moved 3.5 toward JXSTmodel JXST -11

model JXST -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -14

CloseJXST -17.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 17.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 63–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 15.8; 53.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75
Close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	35–10	W	U48
Close	TLSA @ TEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	27–16	L	U53.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	BALL @ AKR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-20	31–25	L	U58
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-13.25	45–10	W	U58
Close	FAU @ FIU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.25	52–7	W	O54.5
Close	UTSA @ TEM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-14	49–34	W	O56
Loose	UL @ GASO 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	28–20	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2
KENN –LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3
KENN –UUU	0-3	0%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%
KENNlast 5	0-5 0%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JXST 4–4 KENN Series tied · 8 games since 2017 · JXST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−8.4▼ 3.9#102

KENN−17.4 →−21.6▼ 4.2#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

JXST

Longer bar = better

KENN

#69

Offense

◀ JXST better

#137

#115

Defense

Even

#106

+0.8 #31

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.3 #90

62 plays #110

Pace

Even

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #68	29.3 #101	JXST
Yards / play	6.37 #42	6.16 #106	JXST
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.16 #101	Even
Success rate	42% #79	46% #117	JXST

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	KENN off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #135	37.0 #129	Even
Yards / play	3.51 #137	6.20 #110	JXST
PPA / play	−0.21 #137	+0.13 #88	JXST
Success rate	28% #137	51% #131	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.0 #71	10.3 #46	16.3 #61	5.8 #83	7.0 #57	12.8 #76
KENN allowed	3.5 #43	13.5 #130	17.0 #109	8.8 #116	3.5 #33	12.3 #79

KENN scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	3.3 #115	3.3 #128	6.5 #128	2.5 #126	3.3 #124	5.8 #131
JXST allowed	11.3 #131	12.3 #126	23.5 #132	5.0 #58	7.0 #89	12.0 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.