Missouri @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

4-0 · Power #23

final

Final

Texas A&M

4-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -2.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 23–25 TA&M

✓ TA&M (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -2

0.5 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -2.5

0.5 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -2 · closed TA&M -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -1.5

model TA&M -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (137 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 41–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.2; 47.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings	-5	23–10	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWLL	2-2	50%	—	—
TA&M LLW–L	1-3	25%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0
TA&M UOO–U	2-2	50%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 212 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
TA&M	6-4 60%	3-5-1 38%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIZ 8–11 TA&M TA&M leads · 19 games since 1957 · MIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+14.2 →+12.2▼ 2.0#17

TA&M+13.5 →+11.2▼ 2.3#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MIZ

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#36

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#68

#11

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#48

+0.8 #34

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+1.2 #17

78 plays #3

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #28	18.0 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #58	5.37 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #36	+0.05 #56	Even
Success rate	49% #22	37% #37	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	TA&M off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #71	12.0 #8	MIZ
Yards / play	5.87 #72	4.07 #9	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.16 #72	−0.05 #19	MIZ
Success rate	45% #58	32% #6	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	10.3 #19	11.3 #37	21.5 #23	8.5 #34	4.0 #114	12.5 #79
TA&M allowed	3.4 #36	1.2 #4	4.6 #7	7.0 #96	6.4 #77	13.4 #89

TA&M scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.2 #37	10.0 #51	18.2 #45	5.4 #87	5.4 #95	10.8 #103
MIZ allowed	3.5 #42	3.3 #17	6.8 #14	1.8 #12	1.8 #6	3.5 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.