UCLA @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

1-3 · Power #48

final

Final

Penn State

4-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -29.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 7–36 PSU

✓ PSU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -27.5

ClosePSU -29.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -27.5

2 → PSU

ClosePSU -29.5

2 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -27.5 · closed PSU -29.5 · moved 2 toward PSUmodel PSU -26.5

model PSU -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–31.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 54% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -27.5

ClosePSU -29.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 29.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 27–11; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.1 against an average line of 28.3; 46.7 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Loose	OSU vs MSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-32	38–3	W	U48.25
Loose	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5
Loose	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	42–7	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LL–W	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
PSU WL–L	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UO–U	1-2	33%	1-3
PSU UO–U	1-2	33%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 52% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	2-7 22%
PSU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+7.7 →−1.0▼ 8.7#71

PSU+18.8 →+19.1▲ 0.3#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UCLA

Longer bar = better

PSU

#129

Offense

PSU better ▶

#16

#104

Defense

PSU better ▶

#12

−1.0 #123

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.0 #21

54 plays #136

Pace

PSU faster ▶

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	UCLA off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #132	11.5 #7	PSU
Yards / play	4.90 #120	3.91 #5	PSU
PPA / play	−0.08 #129	−0.06 #17	PSU
Success rate	32% #134	35% #20	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #31	30.8 #103	PSU
Yards / play	7.56 #10	5.65 #86	PSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #15	+0.16 #100	PSU
Success rate	54% #9	49% #127	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.3 #115	5.3 #111	8.5 #116	4.0 #111	2.3 #131	6.3 #130
PSU allowed	4.3 #61	5.0 #35	9.3 #44	0.0 #1	2.3 #12	2.3 #2

PSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.3 #83	13.5 #11	18.8 #36	8.8 #27	8.8 #40	17.5 #31
UCLA allowed	8.8 #119	10.3 #113	19.0 #122	4.3 #47	7.5 #98	11.8 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.