Michigan @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F10 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

4-1 · Power #27

final

Final

Washington

3-2 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -1.5

✓ WASH W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 19–22 WASH

✓ WASH (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -2

CloseWASH -1.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -2

0.5 → MICH

CloseWASH -1.5

0.5 pts toward Michigan

Total

Open41.5

▼ 2

Close39.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -2 · closed WASH -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward MICHmodel WASH -6

model WASH -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -2

CloseWASH -1.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 1.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 2.6; 41 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs IOWA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	10–13	L	U31.5
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	42–24	W	O45
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	NEB vs IOWA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	21–28	L	O41
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	45–20	W	O45
Close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Close	PITT vs CLEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	27–17	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH –L–WL	1-2	33%	—	1-1
WASH WL––L	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH –O–OO	3-0	100%	4-1
WASH UU––U	0-3	0%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 68 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	9-1 90%	5-3 63%	6-2 75%
WASH	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	1-6-1 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 WASH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 8 2023	Washington 13 @ Michigan 34	MICH -5.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+21.1 →+10.5▼ 10.6#23

WASH+12.9 →+12.2▼ 0.7#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MICH

Longer bar = better

WASH

#97

Offense

WASH better ▶

#34

#39

Defense

WASH better ▶

#11

−0.6 #103

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+0.4 #53

60 plays #124

Pace

WASH faster ▶

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	MICH off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #95	12.4 #10	WASH
Yards / play	5.20 #106	4.07 #8	WASH
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	−0.12 #10	WASH
Success rate	42% #78	34% #17	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #92	21.4 #51	MICH
Yards / play	7.22 #18	4.75 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #18	+0.06 #61	WASH
Success rate	55% #6	34% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	5.6 #78	8.2 #69	13.8 #74	3.0 #122	8.0 #45	11.0 #100
WASH allowed	2.6 #21	5.2 #39	7.8 #20	2.6 #15	2.0 #7	4.6 #9

WASH scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.4 #110	10.2 #48	13.6 #78	7.2 #58	4.4 #110	11.6 #94
MICH allowed	1.4 #6	5.8 #45	7.2 #14	4.2 #45	10.0 #124	14.2 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.