Alabama @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

4-0 · Power #7

final

Final

Vanderbilt

2-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -22.5

✓ VAN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 40–16 VAN

✗ ALA (95%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -24.5

CloseALA -22.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -24.5

2 → VAN

CloseALA -22.5

2 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -24.5 · closed ALA -22.5 · moved 2 toward VANmodel ALA -26.5

model ALA -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -24.5

CloseALA -22.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 22.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 40–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 21.4; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-19.5	41–17	W	O55.75
Loose	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & situation	-22	49–13	W	O53.5
Loose	OSU @ RUTG 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	35–16	P	O42.5
Loose	OSU @ MD 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-26.25	43–30	L	O62.5
Loose	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5
Loose	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · loose	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-22	13–12	L	U45
Loose	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	52–28	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
VAN WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
VAN OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
VAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ALA 64–19 VAN (4 tied) ALA leads · 87 games since 1903 · ALA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+25.5▲ 5.3#1

VAN−6.1 →−1.3▲ 4.8#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ALA

Longer bar = better

VAN

#19

Offense

◀ ALA better

#38

#15

Defense

◀ ALA better

#58

+0.8 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #33

63 plays #100

Pace

◀ ALA faster

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	47.0 #8	23.3 #67	ALA
Yards / play	7.74 #7	5.14 #52	ALA
PPA / play	+0.40 #11	+0.08 #71	ALA
Success rate	45% #50	38% #43	Even

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	VAN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #24	15.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #75	4.25 #13	ALA
PPA / play	+0.27 #24	−0.09 #11	Even
Success rate	48% #30	34% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	14.0 #5	12.8 #16	26.8 #6	7.8 #48	12.5 #6	20.3 #14
VAN allowed	2.5 #21	3.8 #19	6.3 #12	7.5 #103	7.0 #89	14.5 #102

VAN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.0 #89	11.8 #28	16.8 #55	4.3 #104	12.5 #6	16.8 #31
ALA allowed	1.5 #9	2.5 #12	4.0 #5	5.5 #71	5.5 #60	11.0 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.