Texas Tech @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff93°F11 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

4-1 · Power #46

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

3-1 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -5.5

✓ TTU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 26–32 ARIZ

✗ ARIZ (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -4

CloseARIZ -5.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -4

1.5 → ARIZ

CloseARIZ -5.5

1.5 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -4 · closed ARIZ -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward ARIZmodel ARIZ -6

model ARIZ -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -4

CloseARIZ -5.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 5.5-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 28–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 5.6; 63.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	28–30	L	U63.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LL–WL	1-3	25%	0-1	—
ARIZ LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OU–UO	2-2	50%	4-1
ARIZ OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
ARIZ	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+4.7 →+5.0▲ 0.3#44

ARIZ+9.2 →+7.0▼ 2.2#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TTU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#34

Offense

◀ TTU better

#58

#111

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#56

+0.4 #54

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

0.0 #82

76 plays #4

Pace

◀ TTU faster

59 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	41.6 #14	22.5 #61	TTU
Yards / play	6.40 #40	5.29 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #34	+0.03 #39	Even
Success rate	45% #48	40% #64	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	34.4 #121	ARIZ
Yards / play	7.14 #15	6.41 #120	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.15 #96	ARIZ
Success rate	41% #96	44% #106	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	13.2 #5	13.8 #7	27.0 #4	6.2 #69	7.0 #58	13.2 #72
ARIZ allowed	5.3 #76	7.5 #66	12.8 #77	5.3 #65	4.5 #41	9.8 #40

ARIZ scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	6.8 #65	5.8 #110	12.5 #90	8.5 #32	7.3 #56	15.8 #40
TTU allowed	7.0 #99	10.8 #118	17.8 #113	6.0 #79	9.4 #119	15.4 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.