Cincinnati @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

3-1 · Power #45

final

Final

Texas Tech

3-1 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 27–31 TTU

✓ TTU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -4

CloseTTU -3.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -4

0.5 → CIN

CloseTTU -3.5

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open58.5

▲ 1

Close59.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -4 · closed TTU -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel TTU -8

model TTU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 47% (134 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -4

CloseTTU -3.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 3.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 44–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 3.7; 54.3 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–30	L	U63.5
Close	BYU vs ECU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–27	L	U64
Close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Close	TTU vs ASU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-4.5	30–22	W	U58.5
Close	UCF vs MEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	24–7	W	U63.25
Close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Close	AUB vs WKU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	41–17	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWW–	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
TTU LL–W	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUU–	1-2	33%	3-1
TTU OU–U	1-2	33%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 163 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
TTU	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 0–1 TTU (1 tied) TTU leads · 2 games since 1968 · TTU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →+3.0▲ 4.7#58

TTU+4.7 →+6.0▲ 1.3#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CIN

Longer bar = better

TTU

#30

Offense

Even

#41

#67

Defense

◀ CIN better

#105

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #61

66 plays #74

Pace

TTU faster ▶

79 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #58	32.8 #117	CIN
Yards / play	7.11 #24	6.22 #116	CIN
PPA / play	+0.33 #19	+0.12 #86	CIN
Success rate	50% #19	43% #100	CIN

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #17	16.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #52	6.05 #102	TTU
PPA / play	+0.21 #47	+0.02 #42	Even
Success rate	45% #46	42% #97	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	13.0 #8	6.8 #94	19.8 #31	8.5 #32	3.3 #123	11.8 #87
TTU allowed	5.3 #76	11.0 #120	16.3 #107	6.8 #87	8.3 #110	15.0 #109

TTU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	14.0 #5	13.8 #12	27.8 #4	5.3 #88	6.3 #76	11.5 #94
CIN allowed	1.5 #10	5.0 #36	6.5 #15	4.3 #49	5.3 #59	9.5 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.