Colorado @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 4:20 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F7 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Colorado

3-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-0 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

UCF -12.5

✓ COLO W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 22–36 UCF

✗ UCF (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -12

CloseUCF -12.5

Total63.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -12

0.5 → UCF

CloseUCF -12.5

0.5 pts toward UCF

Total

Open63.5

▼ 4

Close59.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -12 · closed UCF -12.5 · moved 0.5 toward UCFmodel UCF -17.5

model UCF -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -12

CloseUCF -12.5

Total63.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 12.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 48–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 13.1; 63 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13	41–20	W	O57
Close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-12	47–27	W	O62
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5
Close	UCLA vs COLO 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-14	28–16	L	U60.5
Close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14	43–37	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO L–WW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
UCF WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO O–UO	2-1	67%	3-1
UCF OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 162 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
UCF	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+0.6 →−0.4▼ 1.0#71

UCF+6.5 →+12.2▲ 5.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

COLO

Longer bar = better

UCF

#72

Offense

UCF better ▶

#13

#66

Defense

UCF better ▶

#46

+0.3 #66

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #60

68 plays #54

Pace

UCF faster ▶

75 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	COLO off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #89	17.0 #37	UCF
Yards / play	5.98 #72	5.02 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #75	+0.07 #68	Even
Success rate	45% #53	34% #24	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	45.7 #14	23.5 #72	UCF
Yards / play	7.58 #13	5.40 #67	UCF
PPA / play	+0.39 #14	+0.08 #70	UCF
Success rate	54% #9	38% #53	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	5.3 #84	6.8 #93	12.0 #96	6.0 #76	7.0 #60	13.0 #68
UCF allowed	4.7 #70	5.7 #42	10.3 #57	3.3 #28	3.3 #32	6.7 #23

UCF scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	6.7 #70	13.3 #17	20.0 #32	18.3 #1	7.3 #55	25.7 #1
COLO allowed	7.5 #107	11.3 #119	18.8 #118	0.0 #1	4.8 #55	4.8 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.