Iowa State @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

5-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

3-2 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

ISU -3

✓ ISU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 27–24 WVU

✓ ISU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3

CloseISU -3

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -3

no move

CloseISU -3

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -3 · unchangedmodel ISU -2.5

model ISU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 56%, covered 45% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3

CloseISU -3

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ISU won 28–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 3.3; 55.1 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	40–43	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1
WVU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOOUO	3-2	60%	5-0
WVU UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%
WVU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ISU 7–6 WVU ISU leads · 13 games since 2012 · ISU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+12.1▲ 7.9#19

WVU+4.6 →+7.1▲ 2.5#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ISU

Longer bar = better

WVU

#46

Offense

Even

#45

#13

Defense

◀ ISU better

#91

+1.4 #7

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.6 #108

64 plays #92

Pace

WVU faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #50	25.6 #79	ISU
Yards / play	6.66 #27	6.03 #102	ISU
PPA / play	+0.25 #29	+0.21 #113	ISU
Success rate	43% #77	41% #69	Even

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	WVU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #42	10.0 #3	ISU
Yards / play	6.41 #39	4.41 #10	ISU
PPA / play	+0.20 #44	−0.11 #5	ISU
Success rate	45% #55	37% #33	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.4 #85	8.0 #76	13.4 #80	8.4 #27	9.4 #23	17.8 #18
WVU allowed	2.0 #10	11.0 #117	13.0 #81	5.6 #71	7.0 #86	12.6 #81

WVU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.6 #41	11.6 #21	19.2 #26	4.8 #97	9.0 #35	13.8 #64
ISU allowed	2.8 #20	3.2 #12	6.0 #6	2.6 #14	1.4 #1	4.0 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.