UCF @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-3 · Power #37

final

Final

Iowa State

6-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -13.5

✓ UCF W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 18–31 ISU

✓ ISU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -13.5

CloseISU -13.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -13.5

no move

CloseISU -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -13.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -11

model ISU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 46% (66 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -13.5

CloseISU -13.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 13.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 38–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 13.4; 52.6 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.25	24–0	W	U54
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Very close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	43–21	W	O45
Very close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	24–27	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-0
ISU WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OOOUU	4-2	67%	3-3
ISU OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

Went over in Q3. Of 283 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ISU	8-2 80%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.5 →+6.4▼ 0.1#37

ISU+4.2 →+13.0▲ 8.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UCF

Longer bar = better

ISU

#45

Offense

Even

#49

#68

Defense

ISU better ▶

#23

−0.5 #98

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.5 #5

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ UCF faster

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	UCF off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #54	11.0 #5	ISU
Yards / play	6.58 #31	4.61 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	−0.06 #8	ISU
Success rate	49% #20	40% #65	UCF

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #55	23.7 #69	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #37	5.39 #66	ISU
PPA / play	+0.25 #29	+0.11 #79	ISU
Success rate	43% #73	40% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	5.0 #90	8.3 #71	13.3 #84	12.0 #4	5.3 #106	17.3 #25
ISU allowed	3.5 #38	3.2 #7	6.7 #6	2.2 #8	2.2 #2	4.3 #4

ISU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	4.5 #96	9.0 #57	13.5 #81	7.0 #56	10.2 #16	17.2 #26
UCF allowed	6.3 #94	9.0 #90	15.3 #100	4.5 #46	3.8 #18	8.3 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.