Troy @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Tue, Oct 15, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Troy

1-5 · Power #97

final

Final

South Alabama

2-4 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -8.5

✓ USA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 23–32 USA

✓ USA (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -11.5

CloseUSA -8.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -11.5

3 → TROY

CloseUSA -8.5

3 pts toward Troy

Total

Open56.5

▼ 5

Close51.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -11.5 · closed USA -8.5 · moved 3 toward TROYmodel USA -10

model USA -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 48% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -11.5

CloseUSA -8.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as an 8.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 25–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 7.6; 49.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Close	BC vs WKU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	21–20	L	U48
Close	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · close	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-2
USA LW–LL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
USA UO–UU	2-3	40%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 56% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
USA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TROY 10–4 USA TROY leads · 14 games since 2012 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2023	South Alabama 10 @ Troy 28	TROY -7	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−7.9▼ 10.7#100

USA+0.8 →−1.2▼ 2.0#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TROY

Longer bar = better

USA

#92

Offense

USA better ▶

#13

#107

Defense

Even

#107

0.0 #80

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.0 #21

59 plays #131

Pace

USA faster ▶

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #116	27.2 #90	USA
Yards / play	5.65 #86	6.54 #124	TROY
PPA / play	+0.14 #72	+0.18 #107	TROY
Success rate	41% #95	44% #108	Even

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #22	27.8 #94	USA
Yards / play	7.05 #15	6.22 #113	USA
PPA / play	+0.39 #8	+0.17 #102	USA
Success rate	52% #6	46% #119	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.8 #124	8.0 #77	10.8 #105	4.5 #102	5.3 #112	9.8 #114
USA allowed	7.3 #107	7.5 #73	14.8 #96	6.3 #81	6.0 #64	12.3 #72

USA scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.8 #53	12.3 #13	19.2 #26	11.5 #5	5.8 #92	17.3 #21
TROY allowed	5.0 #65	7.8 #79	12.8 #80	9.2 #127	5.8 #56	15.0 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.