Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Wed, Oct 16, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

4-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

5-1 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

SHSU -1.5

✓ WKU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 25–27 SHSU

✗ SHSU (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -2.5

CloseSHSU -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -2.5

1 → WKU

CloseSHSU -1.5

1 pt toward Western Kentucky

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -2.5 · closed SHSU -1.5 · moved 1 toward WKUmodel SHSU -3.5

model SHSU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -2.5

CloseSHSU -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 31–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4.7 against an average line of 2.6; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	24–14	W	U52.5
Very close	UNLV vs SJSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	31–37	L	O58.25
Very close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–20	L	U62
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	LT vs NMSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–27	L	U55
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	2-1
SHSU L–WWW	4-1	80%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
SHSU O–UOO	3-2	60%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SHSU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WKU 1–0 SHSU WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Sam Houston 23 @ Western Kentucky 28	WKU -10	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−5.0▲ 0.2#91

SHSU−10.8 →−4.2▲ 6.6#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WKU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#71

Offense

Even

#65

#82

Defense

Even

#72

0.0 #76

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.7 #34

68 plays #52

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

73 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #71	23.8 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #69	5.25 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	43% #69	42% #83	Even

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #46	23.8 #69	SHSU
Yards / play	5.52 #95	5.99 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	+0.12 #80	SHSU
Success rate	43% #68	42% #80	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.5 #40	7.3 #87	14.8 #62	6.0 #75	7.5 #54	13.5 #69
SHSU allowed	6.5 #96	6.2 #52	12.7 #76	7.5 #107	3.7 #18	11.2 #51

SHSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	7.5 #40	10.3 #40	17.8 #39	8.5 #24	5.5 #103	14.0 #59
WKU allowed	4.7 #57	7.0 #64	11.7 #68	7.5 #107	4.7 #37	12.2 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.