Fresno State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Fri, Oct 18, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

3-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

3-4 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

FRES -2.5

✓ FRES W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 26–24 NEV

✓ FRES (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -3

CloseFRES -2.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -3

0.5 → NEV

CloseFRES -2.5

0.5 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -3 · closed FRES -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward NEVmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 43% (103 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -3

CloseFRES -2.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 2.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 24–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 3; 59.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-1
NEV LLWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-3
NEV UUOOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
NEV	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 1–0 NEV FRES leads · 1 game since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Nevada 9 @ Fresno State 27	FRES -25.5	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−2.4 →−2.4–#80

NEV−15.0 →−7.0▲ 8.0#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FRES

Longer bar = better

NEV

#95

Offense

NEV better ▶

#54

#60

Defense

◀ FRES better

#105

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #72

69 plays #51

Pace

◀ FRES faster

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #68	27.1 #90	FRES
Yards / play	5.62 #87	6.05 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.19 #111	Even
Success rate	38% #109	45% #114	Even

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #79	27.5 #93	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #53	5.21 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	+0.02 #32	Even
Success rate	46% #42	40% #63	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.8 #39	7.3 #88	15.2 #57	8.0 #28	5.7 #95	13.7 #64
NEV allowed	4.9 #67	9.7 #105	14.6 #95	4.3 #40	8.3 #108	12.6 #77

NEV scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #51	6.3 #103	13.3 #86	7.6 #43	6.4 #79	14.0 #59
FRES allowed	6.7 #98	4.0 #18	10.7 #53	3.8 #29	13.0 #132	16.8 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.