Colorado State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

3-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-5 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

CSU -5.5

✓ CSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 24–18 AFA

✓ CSU (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -7.5

CloseCSU -5.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -7.5

2 → AFA

CloseCSU -5.5

2 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -7.5 · closed CSU -5.5 · moved 2 toward AFAmodel CSU -6

model CSU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 47% (68 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -7.5

CloseCSU -5.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 5.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 21–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 5.2; 54.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	FRES @ UNM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.75	41–9	W	O40.25
Close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	17–24	L	U42
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–38	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-1
AFA LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: CSU away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OUUOO	3-3	50%	3-3
AFA UUOOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
AFA	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 0–1 AFA AFA leads · 1 game since 2023 · AFA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Air Force 30 @ Colorado State 13	AFA -14.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−8.3 →−8.9▼ 0.6#102

AFA−9.1 →−17.6▼ 8.5#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CSU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#86

Offense

◀ CSU better

#132

#97

Defense

Even

#99

−0.8 #112

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

0.0 #78

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ CSU faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #107	28.5 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #88	6.11 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.16 #102	Even
Success rate	46% #43	43% #92	CSU

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	AFA off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #134	29.5 #100	CSU
Yards / play	4.42 #133	5.95 #94	CSU
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.12 #85	CSU
Success rate	36% #128	44% #109	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	5.7 #82	5.2 #117	10.8 #104	4.0 #107	6.7 #79	10.7 #105
AFA allowed	7.5 #112	5.2 #34	12.7 #72	9.0 #126	6.8 #78	15.8 #118

AFA scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.8 #124	7.3 #90	10.2 #106	0.0 #134	5.5 #100	5.5 #131
CSU allowed	3.5 #38	10.3 #115	13.8 #87	5.8 #71	7.3 #96	13.2 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.