San José State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

San José State

4-1 · Power #86

final

Final

Colorado State

2-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -2.5

✓ CSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 25–27 CSU

✓ CSU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2

CloseCSU -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -2

4.5 → CSU

CloseCSU -2.5

4.5 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -2 · closed CSU -2.5 · moved 4.5 toward CSUmodel CSU -1

model CSU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (146 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2

CloseCSU -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 1.9; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	35–31	W	O51
Very close	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–45	L	O49.5
Very close	UNT vs UTEP 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-0.5	20–17	W	U55
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	FSU vs LOU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.25	23–31	L	U60.75
Close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	34–31	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WWW–L	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
CSU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUU–O	2-2	50%	4-1
CSU UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 249 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
CSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−2.2 →−4.7▼ 2.5#87

CSU−8.3 →−9.3▼ 1.0#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SJSU

Longer bar = better

CSU

#51

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#102

#50

Defense

◀ SJSU better

#92

+0.6 #35

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−0.8 #114

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #28	30.6 #102	SJSU
Yards / play	6.01 #60	5.75 #92	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #60	+0.09 #71	Even
Success rate	45% #56	44% #101	SJSU

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	CSU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #115	25.2 #79	SJSU
Yards / play	5.38 #104	4.78 #24	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	0.00 #27	SJSU
Success rate	43% #78	40% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.6 #41	9.0 #57	16.6 #53	8.4 #32	9.2 #28	17.6 #22
CSU allowed	2.8 #21	11.0 #117	13.8 #85	7.0 #92	6.8 #80	13.8 #97

CSU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	5.4 #85	4.8 #121	10.2 #108	3.4 #118	6.0 #85	9.4 #120
SJSU allowed	7.6 #108	6.8 #56	14.4 #90	4.2 #43	5.0 #48	9.2 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.