San Diego State @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

2-3 · Power #122

▲ winner

Final

Wyoming

1-4 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

WYO -1.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 22–24 WYO

✗ WYO (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWYO -0.5

CloseWYO -1.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWYO -0.5

1 → WYO

CloseWYO -1.5

1 pt toward Wyoming

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WYO -0.5 · closed WYO -1.5 · moved 1 toward WYOmodel WYO -4

model WYO -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWYO -0.5

CloseWYO -1.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 1.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 41.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.9; 52.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	RICE vs USM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-1.25	24–19	W	U45
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
WYO LL–LW	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU –UUUO	1-3	25%	2-3
WYO OU–OO	3-1	75%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	2-6-1 25%
WYO	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−10.9▼ 2.6#112

WYO−4.9 →−13.7▼ 8.8#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SDSU

Longer bar = better

WYO

#114

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#131

#66

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#116

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.8 #116

64 plays #89

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #117	32.4 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #117	6.13 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	+0.24 #120	SDSU
Success rate	33% #132	47% #118	Even

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	WYO off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #127	22.4 #58	SDSU
Yards / play	3.93 #135	5.10 #49	SDSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.10 #77	SDSU
Success rate	32% #134	42% #81	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.2 #119	5.6 #112	8.8 #118	4.8 #96	7.0 #62	11.8 #92
WYO allowed	7.6 #108	12.6 #128	20.2 #124	10.4 #130	1.8 #4	12.2 #76

WYO scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	4.0 #103	4.2 #127	8.2 #122	2.8 #123	5.4 #106	8.2 #124
SDSU allowed	5.4 #76	3.2 #12	8.6 #30	7.0 #92	6.8 #80	13.8 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.