Air Force @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-4 · Power #108

final

Final

New Mexico

1-4 · Power #111

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -6.5

✓ UNM W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 24–30 UNM

✓ UNM (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -3.5

CloseUNM -6.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -3.5

3 → UNM

CloseUNM -6.5

3 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -3.5 · closed UNM -6.5 · moved 3 toward UNMmodel UNM -6.5 matches the line

model UNM -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -3.5

CloseUNM -6.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 6.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 52–37; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 5.7; 56.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Close	CLT vs RICE 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–24	W	O52.25
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	22–35	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-2	0-2
UNM WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUUOO	2-3	40%	1-4
UNM OOOUO	4-1	80%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 252 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
UNM	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−16.4▼ 7.3#124

UNM−11.4 →−12.9▼ 1.5#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AFA

Longer bar = better

UNM

#134

Offense

UNM better ▶

#45

#81

Defense

◀ AFA better

#134

+0.2 #59

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−0.4 #98

63 plays #103

Pace

UNM faster ▶

72 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	11.4 #137	43.8 #134	Even
Yards / play	3.95 #134	7.56 #135	Even
PPA / play	−0.15 #136	+0.31 #131	Even
Success rate	34% #129	52% #134	Even

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #49	23.8 #70	UNM
Yards / play	6.37 #40	5.85 #98	UNM
PPA / play	+0.23 #37	+0.11 #81	UNM
Success rate	45% #54	41% #74	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.8 #125	6.0 #105	8.8 #120	0.0 #134	2.6 #133	2.6 #134
UNM allowed	8.6 #124	10.0 #104	18.6 #118	9.0 #123	16.2 #133	25.2 #133

UNM scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	8.8 #23	9.6 #50	18.4 #36	4.6 #102	9.0 #34	13.6 #67
AFA allowed	7.6 #113	2.0 #7	9.6 #39	7.4 #105	6.8 #78	14.2 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.