Air Force @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Army

Weather at kickoff54°F9 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-6 · Power #108

final

Final

Army

7-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -18.5

✓ AFA W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 10–31 ARMY

✓ ARMY (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -23.5

CloseARMY -18.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -23.5

5 → AFA

CloseARMY -18.5

5 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open40.5

▼ 2

Close38.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -23.5 · closed ARMY -18.5 · moved 5 toward AFAmodel ARMY -29

model ARMY -29

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -23.5

CloseARMY -18.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like ARMY as an 18.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 20–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 23 points stayed under 38.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 17.6; 38.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AFA vs NAVY 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-14	13–10	L	U38
Loose	AFA vs UNM 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-21	35–3	W	O37.25
Loose	SJSU vs KENN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-17	31–10	W	U42
Loose	CIN vs M-OH 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-14.25	24–31	L	O44.25
Loose	AFA vs CSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-21.5	24–12	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLLLL	0-7	0%	0-3	0-4
ARMY WWWWL	6-1	86%	3-1	5-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UOOOU	3-4	43%	1-6
ARMY OOOUO	5-2	71%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 61% of games with totals 34.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
ARMY	10-0 100%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 38–21 ARMY (1 tied) AFA leads · 60 games since 1959 · ARMY has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Army 23 @ Air Force 3	AFA -18.5	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−18.2▼ 9.1#129

ARMY−16.8 →+4.8▲ 21.6#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

AFA

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#133

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#98

Defense

ARMY better ▶

#30

−0.1 #86

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+1.1 #12

67 plays #70

Pace

◀ AFA faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	AFA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #134	12.4 #6	ARMY
Yards / play	4.41 #134	4.84 #18	ARMY
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	−0.01 #15	ARMY
Success rate	35% #131	42% #80	ARMY

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #9	27.4 #87	ARMY
Yards / play	7.39 #4	6.23 #117	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.52 #1	+0.17 #99	ARMY
Success rate	58% #1	42% #89	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.4 #128	6.3 #113	8.7 #123	0.0 #134	6.6 #81	6.6 #132
ARMY allowed	2.4 #13	1.0 #1	3.4 #2	2.9 #10	6.1 #69	9.0 #21

ARMY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	9.9 #15	12.4 #9	22.3 #10	10.7 #8	7.4 #61	18.1 #15
AFA allowed	6.4 #97	6.4 #50	12.9 #75	8.7 #124	5.9 #56	14.6 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.