Hawai'i @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

3-5 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

5-3 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

FRES -12.5

✓ HAW W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 16–29 FRES

✗ FRES (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -12.5

CloseFRES -12.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -12.5

no move

CloseFRES -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -12.5 · unchangedmodel FRES -12.5 matches the line

model FRES -12.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 47% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -12.5

CloseFRES -12.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 12.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 21–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 12.5; 47.5 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	USA vs MRSH 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	28–0	W	U45
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLLLW	3-4	43%	0-2	1-3
FRES WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	4-1

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UOUUO	2-5	29%	3-5
FRES UOUUU	2-5	29%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
FRES	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.7 →−9.2▲ 2.5#103

FRES−2.4 →−1.9▲ 0.5#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HAW

Longer bar = better

FRES

#85

Offense

Even

#95

#59

Defense

FRES better ▶

#44

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+0.4 #42

64 plays #93

Pace

FRES faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	HAW off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #112	24.5 #70	FRES
Yards / play	5.41 #96	5.19 #44	FRES
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	−0.02 #13	FRES
Success rate	45% #49	40% #48	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	FRES off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #63	22.3 #54	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #92	5.53 #70	HAW
PPA / play	+0.05 #112	+0.11 #78	HAW
Success rate	38% #111	39% #35	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	7.0 #48	3.8 #133	10.8 #110	6.0 #74	4.8 #119	10.8 #104
FRES allowed	6.8 #104	4.8 #15	11.5 #59	2.9 #11	10.1 #127	13.0 #85

FRES scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.6 #55	9.4 #51	16.0 #50	7.8 #35	5.0 #114	12.8 #76
HAW allowed	3.4 #25	6.9 #53	10.3 #35	5.1 #53	6.9 #83	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.