Colorado State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

5-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

3-6 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

CSU -2.5

✓ CSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 24–23 NEV

✓ CSU (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -1

CloseCSU -2.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -1

1.5 → CSU

CloseCSU -2.5

1.5 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -1 · closed CSU -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward CSUmodel NEV -3.5

model NEV -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (125 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -1

CloseCSU -2.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 2.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 2.5; 51.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTEP @ USM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.25	26–13	W	U46.25
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Very close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WWWWW	5-3	63%	2-1	4-1
NEV WWWLL	5-4	56%	3-2	4-3

Venue/role: CSU away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU UOOUU	3-5	38%	5-3
NEV OOOUO	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 252 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 1–0 NEV CSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Nevada 20 @ Colorado State 30	CSU -12	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−8.3 →−8.8▼ 0.5#101

NEV−15.0 →−8.3▲ 6.7#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CSU

Longer bar = better

NEV

#87

Offense

NEV better ▶

#70

#72

Defense

◀ CSU better

#101

0.0 #76

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #68

64 plays #104

Pace

NEV faster ▶

64 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #114	27.6 #88	NEV
Yards / play	5.79 #74	5.98 #97	CSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.19 #106	Even
Success rate	44% #58	46% #114	CSU

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #96	24.5 #69	CSU
Yards / play	5.89 #65	5.73 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #63	+0.06 #49	Even
Success rate	45% #54	42% #83	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.3 #100	7.8 #83	12.0 #101	3.9 #110	5.0 #115	8.9 #122
NEV allowed	5.7 #78	9.4 #105	15.1 #97	4.9 #50	7.6 #94	12.4 #71

NEV scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	6.2 #67	6.4 #108	12.7 #93	6.7 #59	5.7 #102	12.3 #86
CSU allowed	2.6 #15	8.1 #76	10.8 #44	4.8 #46	7.1 #89	11.9 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.