Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Wed, Oct 30, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

1-6 · Power #133

final

Final

Western Kentucky

5-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -23.5

✓ KENN W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 11–34 WKU

✓ WKU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -24.5

CloseWKU -23.5

Total46.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -24.5

1 → KENN

CloseWKU -23.5

1 pt toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open46.5

▲ 3

Close49.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -24.5 · closed WKU -23.5 · moved 1 toward KENNmodel WKU -25

model WKU -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 45% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -24.5

CloseWKU -23.5

Total46.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 23.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 31–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 23.3; 51.9 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	OHIO vs KENT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	42–17	W	O45.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Loose	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	2-4
WKU WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UUOUO	2-4	33%	1-6
WKU OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 8	1-7 13%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
WKU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−17.4 →−23.2▼ 5.8#133

WKU−5.2 →−3.4▲ 1.8#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

KENN

Longer bar = better

WKU

#137

Offense

WKU better ▶

#63

#104

Defense

WKU better ▶

#76

−0.7 #112

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+0.1 #61

61 plays #119

Pace

WKU faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	KENN off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #135	22.4 #55	WKU
Yards / play	3.93 #137	5.95 #97	WKU
PPA / play	−0.17 #137	+0.10 #73	WKU
Success rate	29% #137	42% #78	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #64	31.1 #112	WKU
Yards / play	5.83 #71	5.95 #95	WKU
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	+0.13 #90	WKU
Success rate	44% #57	47% #120	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	3.6 #112	4.9 #125	8.4 #126	2.4 #126	4.1 #126	6.6 #131
WKU allowed	4.0 #41	8.0 #76	12.0 #66	6.4 #87	4.0 #17	10.4 #42

WKU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.4 #34	7.7 #81	15.1 #54	5.1 #89	8.4 #32	13.6 #65
KENN allowed	5.0 #62	10.7 #118	15.7 #102	9.4 #129	6.0 #60	15.4 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.