New Mexico State @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Tue, Oct 29, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F17 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-5 · Power #130

final

Final

Florida International

2-6 · Power #121

▲ winner

Closing spread

FIU -7.5

✓ FIU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 17–26 FIU

✓ FIU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -10

CloseFIU -7.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -10

2.5 → NMSU

CloseFIU -7.5

2.5 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -10 · closed FIU -7.5 · moved 2.5 toward NMSUmodel FIU -12.5

model FIU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (99 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (69 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -10

CloseFIU -7.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 8.3; 38.4 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	41–14	W	O37
Close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Close	BALL vs KENT 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-10.5	34–3	W	U42
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-10.5	40–6	W	U51
Close	OHIO vs AKR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings	-8	30–10	W	U46
Close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	14–10	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LLLLW	2-5	29%	0-3	2-4
FIU LWWLW	5-3	63%	3-1	0-2

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	2-5
FIU OUUOU	4-4	50%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
FIU	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 1–0 FIU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2023	Florida International 17 @ New Mexico State 34	NMSU -4.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−22.0▼ 14.2#132

FIU−14.7 →−13.8▲ 0.9#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NMSU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#119

Offense

Even

#118

#113

Defense

FIU better ▶

#67

−1.4 #134

Turnovers

FIU better ▶

−0.6 #105

65 plays #86

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	NMSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #120	26.4 #82	FIU
Yards / play	4.48 #132	5.23 #52	FIU
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.08 #59	FIU
Success rate	38% #110	42% #75	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #101	37.0 #129	FIU
Yards / play	5.16 #113	6.29 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.12 #136	+0.27 #129	Even
Success rate	36% #121	42% #73	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #118	4.7 #125	8.0 #130	2.0 #130	9.3 #19	11.3 #98
FIU allowed	4.3 #44	9.3 #96	13.5 #81	7.4 #109	4.6 #29	12.0 #65

FIU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.6 #76	7.0 #95	12.6 #92	4.5 #99	6.6 #78	11.1 #100
NMSU allowed	7.4 #115	12.4 #128	19.9 #129	6.1 #79	10.1 #127	16.3 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.