Florida International @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

3-6 · Power #121

final

Final

Jacksonville State

6-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -12.5

✓ FIU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 21–34 JXST

✓ JXST (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -14

CloseJXST -12.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -14

1.5 → FIU

CloseJXST -12.5

1.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -14 · closed JXST -12.5 · moved 1.5 toward FIUmodel JXST -14

model JXST -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 47% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -14

CloseJXST -12.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 12.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 12.7; 65.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	43–46	L	O59
Very close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	55–19	W	O60
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-9	30–42	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WWLWW	6-3	67%	2-2	5-1
JXST WWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UUOUO	5-4	56%	3-6
JXST OOUUO	6-3	67%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 246 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
JXST	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FIU 1–4 JXST JXST leads · 5 games since 2020 · JXST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2023	Jacksonville State 41 @ Florida International 16	JXST -9	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−14.7 →−13.1▲ 1.6#117

JXST−4.5 →−3.6▲ 0.9#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

FIU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#114

Offense

JXST better ▶

#21

#53

Defense

◀ FIU better

#85

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.8 #22

60 plays #127

Pace

JXST faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	FIU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #98	29.2 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #100	5.77 #83	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	+0.08 #55	JXST
Success rate	37% #127	44% #105	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #9	24.9 #70	JXST
Yards / play	6.69 #19	5.11 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #28	+0.04 #42	Even
Success rate	46% #27	41% #62	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.0 #87	7.0 #96	12.0 #98	5.4 #83	7.4 #57	12.9 #71
JXST allowed	8.3 #122	9.7 #108	18.0 #118	3.6 #20	7.0 #81	10.6 #39

JXST scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.3 #37	12.1 #8	19.4 #20	9.9 #11	8.8 #23	18.7 #7
FIU allowed	3.8 #34	8.9 #95	12.7 #70	6.6 #92	4.9 #30	11.4 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.