Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

8-2 · Power #93

final

Final

Jacksonville State

7-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -5.5

✓ JXST W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 26–31 JXST

✓ JXST (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -6.5

CloseJXST -5.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -6.5

1 → SHSU

CloseJXST -5.5

1 pt toward Sam Houston

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -6.5 · closed JXST -5.5 · moved 1 toward SHSUmodel JXST -3.5

model JXST -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -6.5

CloseJXST -5.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 5.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 21–11; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 5.5; 54.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	31–19	W	U57
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5
Very close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WLLLL	4-5	44%	2-3	2-1
JXST WWWLL	5-5	50%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUUUU	3-6	33%	8-2
JXST OUUOO	7-3	70%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
JXST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 0–1 JXST JXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · JXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2023	Jacksonville State 35 @ Sam Houston 28	JXST -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−10.8 →−5.3▲ 5.5#93

JXST−4.5 →−4.5–#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SHSU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#100

Offense

JXST better ▶

#22

#35

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#89

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #19

70 plays #26

Pace

Even

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #96	29.4 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.21 #115	5.82 #88	JXST
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.09 #60	JXST
Success rate	41% #97	45% #111	Even

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #10	20.1 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #18	4.88 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	+0.01 #22	Even
Success rate	46% #29	41% #64	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.7 #91	7.9 #74	12.6 #87	7.2 #47	4.3 #128	11.5 #97
JXST allowed	7.8 #114	10.1 #114	17.9 #119	3.9 #25	7.0 #77	10.9 #45

JXST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.9 #40	12.6 #7	19.5 #19	8.9 #19	9.3 #17	18.2 #10
SHSU allowed	4.9 #60	5.0 #16	9.9 #30	5.2 #55	5.0 #32	10.2 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.