New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-8 · Power #130

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

3-7 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

MTSU -3.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 25–29 MTSU

✗ MTSU (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -3.5

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMTSU -3.5

no move

CloseMTSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 3

Close53.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MTSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel MTSU -7

model MTSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (186 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -3.5

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NMSU won 36–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.4; 56.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Close	UAB vs TLSA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	59–21	W	O57.5
Close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	TEM vs TLSA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–10	W	U51.5
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Close	NMSU vs MASS 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-7	44–27	W	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWLWW	4-6	40%	1-4	4-5
MTSU LLLWL	2-7	22%	0-4	0-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOOOU	5-5	50%	2-8
MTSU OUUUU	3-6	33%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 336 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MTSU	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 1–0 MTSU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Middle Tennessee 7 @ New Mexico State 13	NMSU -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−22.2▼ 14.4#131

MTSU−7.5 →−18.8▼ 11.3#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NMSU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#126

Offense

Even

#116

#115

Defense

Even

#126

−1.3 #133

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

−0.6 #116

65 plays #85

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #127	34.0 #119	Even
Yards / play	4.52 #133	6.61 #126	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.27 #128	Even
Success rate	38% #118	50% #130	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #132	37.2 #129	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #97	6.50 #121	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	+0.28 #131	Even
Success rate	38% #119	42% #80	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.0 #124	3.9 #128	6.9 #133	2.8 #128	8.2 #41	11.0 #104
MTSU allowed	10.5 #133	8.8 #90	19.3 #124	9.5 #126	5.2 #37	14.7 #106

MTSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.8 #67	2.4 #134	8.2 #129	4.8 #96	4.2 #128	9.0 #120
NMSU allowed	8.3 #122	11.1 #122	19.4 #125	7.0 #101	10.2 #127	17.2 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.