Louisiana Tech @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff61°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

4-6 · Power #112

final

Final

Arkansas

5-5 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARK -23.5

✓ LT W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 12–35 ARK

✓ ARK (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -22.5

CloseARK -23.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -22.5

1 → ARK

CloseARK -23.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -22.5 · closed ARK -23.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -24.5

model ARK -24.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 46% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -22.5

CloseARK -23.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 23.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 35–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Below normal · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 23.5; 57 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Very close	AUB vs ULM 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-24.5	48–14	W	O46
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LLWWW	5-4	56%	3-2	4-0
ARK WLWLW	7-2	78%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OUUOU	4-5	44%	4-6
ARK UUOOU	4-5	44%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 329 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
ARK	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LT 0–4 ARK ARK leads · 4 games since 1996 · ARK has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−11.1▼ 0.9#110

ARK+3.1 →+8.3▲ 5.2#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

ARK

#122

Offense

ARK better ▶

#30

#16

Defense

◀ LT better

#74

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #107

70 plays #28

Pace

Even

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: ARK defense

	LT off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #112	25.7 #75	ARK
Yards / play	4.94 #124	5.70 #80	ARK
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.10 #70	ARK
Success rate	38% #124	42% #70	ARK

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #45	21.1 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #19	4.64 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	−0.01 #16	LT
Success rate	48% #17	35% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.2 #103	8.5 #60	12.7 #88	3.6 #122	5.0 #119	8.6 #123
ARK allowed	4.8 #57	6.4 #41	11.2 #47	7.4 #111	6.3 #65	13.7 #92

ARK scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.2 #21	8.0 #72	16.2 #41	6.2 #63	8.3 #37	14.5 #53
LT allowed	5.4 #76	4.7 #13	10.1 #32	5.2 #54	3.9 #11	9.1 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.