UL Monroe @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:45 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Auburn

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UL Monroe

5-4 · Power #115

final

Final

Auburn

3-6 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -25.5

✓ AUB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 9–34 AUB

✓ AUB (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -24.5

CloseAUB -25.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -24.5

1 → AUB

CloseAUB -25.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -24.5 · closed AUB -25.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -22.5

model AUB -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 44% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (94 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -24.5

CloseAUB -25.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 25.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Below normal · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 25; 48.3 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Very close	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Close	PSU vs ILL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-24.5	18–20	L	U45.5
Close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Close	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-26	44–21	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WWLWL	6-3	67%	2-2	4-3
AUB LWWWL	5-4	56%	2-4	2-4

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOOO	5-4	56%	5-4
AUB OUUUU	3-6	33%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 262 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
AUB	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−10.5▲ 6.8#108

AUB+7.1 →+7.5▲ 0.4#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ULM

Longer bar = better

AUB

#113

Offense

AUB better ▶

#63

#81

Defense

AUB better ▶

#22

0.0 #71

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−1.1 #131

58 plays #134

Pace

AUB faster ▶

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	ULM off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #115	19.2 #23	AUB
Yards / play	5.19 #115	4.75 #14	AUB
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.03 #36	AUB
Success rate	37% #129	36% #14	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #94	25.8 #76	Even
Yards / play	6.73 #16	5.45 #63	AUB
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.09 #65	ULM
Success rate	45% #48	46% #120	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.8 #112	6.4 #111	10.2 #118	4.0 #111	7.3 #59	11.3 #101
AUB allowed	5.7 #79	3.0 #4	8.7 #15	2.6 #6	8.0 #100	10.6 #39

AUB scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	5.8 #74	6.8 #101	12.6 #90	7.0 #44	5.8 #98	12.8 #74
ULM allowed	7.6 #113	5.8 #35	13.3 #81	4.9 #48	7.6 #93	12.4 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.