Tennessee @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

8-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Georgia

7-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -7.5

✓ UGA W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 22–29 UGA

✓ UGA (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -8.5

CloseUGA -7.5

Total53.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -8.5

1 → TENN

CloseUGA -7.5

1 pt toward Tennessee

Total

Open53.5

▼ 7

Close46.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -8.5 · closed UGA -7.5 · moved 1 toward TENNmodel UGA -4.5

model UGA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (113 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -8.5

CloseUGA -7.5

Total53.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 7.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6.5; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Loose	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & spread	-5	23–10	W	U47.5
Loose	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Loose	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Loose	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.25	14–7	W	U40
Loose	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Loose	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Loose	USC vs UTAH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	32–34	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LLWLL	5-4	56%	1-1	1-0
UGA LLWLL	2-7	22%	0-3	1-7

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUUOU	4-5	44%	8-1
UGA UOUOU	3-6	33%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 285 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TENN 0–1 UGA UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Georgia 38 @ Tennessee 10	UGA -9	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+13.9 →+19.3▲ 5.4#9

UGA+24.2 →+21.3▼ 2.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TENN

Longer bar = better

UGA

#33

Offense

◀ TENN better

#50

Defense

◀ TENN better

#20

+0.4 #34

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.3 #94

75 plays #6

Pace

◀ TENN faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #13	18.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #39	4.89 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.02 #29	Even
Success rate	46% #33	35% #9	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UGA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #51	12.6 #5	TENN
Yards / play	6.14 #47	4.22 #3	TENN
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	−0.12 #3	TENN
Success rate	46% #35	35% #3	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.4 #12	10.1 #39	19.6 #18	10.6 #9	6.8 #76	17.3 #15
UGA allowed	4.4 #51	4.2 #10	8.7 #15	5.7 #67	4.1 #13	9.8 #26

UGA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.3 #82	7.7 #81	13.0 #81	8.6 #23	9.0 #19	17.6 #14
TENN allowed	1.8 #6	2.2 #2	4.0 #2	3.8 #23	4.8 #26	8.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.