Pittsburgh @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh

7-0 · Power #57

final

Final

SMU

7-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -7.5

✓ SMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 23–31 SMU

✓ SMU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -7.5

CloseSMU -7.5

Total60.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -7.5

no move

CloseSMU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▼ 6

Close54.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -7.5 · unchangedmodel SMU -8.5

model SMU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (104 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -7.5

CloseSMU -7.5

Total60.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 7.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SMU won 48–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 6.8; 56.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Close	WASH vs ORST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	BAY vs KU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	35–23	W	O56.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	23–10	W	U47.5
Close	TCU vs KSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-3.5	38–28	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WWWLW	5-2	71%	1-1	1-0
SMU –WWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOUUU	3-4	43%	7-0
SMU –OOUO	3-3	50%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 297 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+7.6▲ 8.5#33

SMU+10.3 →+12.4▲ 2.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PITT

Longer bar = better

SMU

#14

Offense

◀ PITT better

#35

#25

Defense

Even

#18

+1.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

+0.1 #66

64 plays #101

Pace

SMU faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	40.9 #6	21.4 #36	PITT
Yards / play	6.96 #9	4.81 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #15	−0.07 #5	Even
Success rate	47% #27	36% #12	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #10	22.0 #45	SMU
Yards / play	6.39 #33	4.58 #8	PITT
PPA / play	+0.18 #51	+0.01 #23	PITT
Success rate	45% #44	37% #23	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.7 #7	11.9 #14	22.6 #7	6.4 #66	11.9 #4	18.3 #10
SMU allowed	4.8 #56	6.3 #42	11.0 #49	6.5 #88	3.1 #5	9.6 #27

SMU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.9 #5	12.3 #7	23.1 #5	6.9 #53	8.3 #35	15.1 #43
PITT allowed	5.9 #83	6.1 #41	12.0 #65	6.7 #93	3.3 #9	10.0 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.