Virginia @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

4-4 · Power #77

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

7-1 · Power #57

final

Closing spread

PITT -7.5

✓ UVA W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 23–32 PITT

✗ PITT (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -7.5

ClosePITT -7.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -7.5

no move

ClosePITT -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -7.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -11.5

model PITT -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (106 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -7.5

ClosePITT -7.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 7.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 6.9; 56.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–29	L	U58
Very close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	BYU vs OKST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	38–35	L	O53
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	28–13	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0
PITT WWLWL	5-3	63%	4-1	4-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OUUOU	3-3	50%	4-4
PITT OUUUO	4-4	50%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
PITT	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →−1.3▲ 1.6#70

PITT−0.9 →+6.9▲ 7.8#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UVA

Longer bar = better

PITT

#78

Offense

PITT better ▶

#25

#94

Defense

PITT better ▶

#41

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

+0.6 #30

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ UVA faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	UVA off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #83	25.3 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #72	4.85 #20	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.05 #40	PITT
Success rate	42% #83	38% #28	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #10	27.6 #90	PITT
Yards / play	6.62 #21	5.98 #96	PITT
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	+0.20 #110	PITT
Success rate	45% #42	42% #79	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.3 #62	7.9 #77	14.1 #65	2.9 #126	9.3 #19	12.1 #88
PITT allowed	6.0 #87	8.4 #86	14.4 #91	6.3 #85	4.6 #21	10.9 #44

PITT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.8 #12	10.4 #27	20.1 #14	6.6 #55	12.1 #3	18.8 #7
UVA allowed	3.8 #33	9.5 #106	13.3 #79	9.4 #128	5.0 #34	14.4 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.