Virginia @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff52°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

5-4 · Power #77

final

Final

Notre Dame

8-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -21.5

✓ UVA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 13–35 ND

✓ ND (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -23.5

CloseND -21.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -23.5

2 → UVA

CloseND -21.5

2 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -23.5 · closed ND -21.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel ND -25.5

model ND -25.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 49% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -23.5

CloseND -21.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 21.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 35–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.4 against an average line of 21.3; 60.4 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Very close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	ND vs STAN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.5	49–7	W	O45.5
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-22.25	29–7	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWWLW	5-2	71%	3-1	3-0
ND WWWWW	7-2	78%	3-2	6-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-4
ND OOUOO	5-4	56%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%
ND	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →−0.1▲ 2.8#69

ND+18.9 →+20.8▲ 1.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UVA

Longer bar = better

#80

Offense

ND better ▶

#24

#86

Defense

ND better ▶

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.3 #3

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ UVA faster

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	UVA off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #85	11.1 #3	ND
Yards / play	5.68 #74	4.30 #4	ND
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	−0.17 #1	ND
Success rate	42% #83	36% #15	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #12	26.7 #81	ND
Yards / play	6.45 #29	5.80 #88	ND
PPA / play	+0.25 #16	+0.18 #106	ND
Success rate	45% #40	41% #67	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	5.6 #79	7.8 #77	13.3 #80	4.1 #110	8.6 #28	12.7 #79
ND allowed	4.1 #43	2.6 #3	6.7 #5	1.6 #3	2.9 #5	4.4 #2

ND scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.1 #26	11.9 #11	20.0 #15	9.1 #15	9.2 #20	18.3 #9
UVA allowed	3.3 #26	9.9 #110	13.2 #77	8.3 #117	5.1 #39	13.4 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.