Wake Forest @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-5 · Power #89

final

Final

North Carolina

5-4 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -10.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 26–37 UNC

✓ UNC (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -11

CloseUNC -10.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -11

0.5 → WAKE

CloseUNC -10.5

0.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open63.5

▲ 1

Close64.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -11 · closed UNC -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward WAKEmodel UNC -14

model UNC -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -11

CloseUNC -10.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 10.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 11; 60.6 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	30–42	L	O64.5
Very close	TCU vs OKST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	38–13	W	U68.5
Very close	MIA vs GT 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10	33–30	L	P63
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Very close	UVA vs DUKE 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	48–0	W	U69.5
Close	CCU vs GASO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	34–30	L	U69.75
Close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	34–24	P	U64
Close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	55–19	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WLWWL	4-4	50%	3-0	2-3
UNC LLLWW	3-6	33%	0-5	2-4

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OUUUO	4-4	50%	4-5
UNC UUOUU	3-6	33%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
UNC	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−3.0 →−4.7▼ 1.7#90

UNC+7.2 →+5.6▼ 1.6#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WAKE

Longer bar = better

UNC

#71

Offense

UNC better ▶

#44

#117

Defense

UNC better ▶

#67

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

0.0 #72

72 plays #13

Pace

Even

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #67	26.4 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #89	5.64 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	44% #47	39% #40	Even

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #28	32.7 #116	UNC
Yards / play	6.18 #44	6.05 #106	UNC
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.22 #113	UNC
Success rate	44% #62	51% #134	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.1 #40	8.7 #57	15.8 #53	6.9 #50	5.4 #110	12.3 #87
UNC allowed	5.7 #83	8.7 #90	14.3 #87	4.8 #44	7.3 #89	12.1 #67

UNC scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.6 #53	10.3 #33	16.9 #38	9.0 #17	8.1 #38	17.1 #17
WAKE allowed	6.7 #104	11.9 #126	18.6 #121	5.8 #71	8.3 #109	14.1 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.