Wake Forest @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-6 · Power #89

final

Final

Miami

9-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -23.5

✓ MIA W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 20–45 MIA

✓ MIA (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -24

CloseMIA -23.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -24

0.5 → WAKE

CloseMIA -23.5

0.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open64.5

▲ 1

Close65.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -24 · closed MIA -23.5 · moved 0.5 toward WAKEmodel MIA -28.5

model MIA -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 44% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -24

CloseMIA -23.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 23.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 42–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 65.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 23.6; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	ORE vs CAL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-25.5	63–19	W	O61.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	ORE vs MD 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-24	39–18	L	U58
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.75	45–20	W	U67.75
Close	TENN vs MSST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-26.5	33–14	L	U61.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	USC vs CAL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-21	41–35	L	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWWLW	5-4	56%	4-0	3-3
MIA LWWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	6-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUUOU	4-5	44%	4-6
MIA OOUOU	7-2	78%	9-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 41% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
MIA	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WAKE 3–10 MIA MIA leads · 13 games since 1928 · MIA has won the last 9 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−3.0 →−4.2▼ 1.2#83

MIA+9.9 →+19.3▲ 9.4#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WAKE

Longer bar = better

MIA

#76

Offense

MIA better ▶

#114

Defense

MIA better ▶

#43

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.5 #31

72 plays #14

Pace

Even

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	WAKE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #73	23.1 #57	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #91	5.16 #40	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.07 #53	MIA
Success rate	44% #61	37% #23	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #1	32.5 #115	MIA
Yards / play	7.64 #1	5.93 #96	MIA
PPA / play	+0.38 #4	+0.21 #111	MIA
Success rate	52% #5	50% #135	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.7 #45	7.8 #75	14.5 #59	7.6 #39	5.6 #106	13.2 #68
MIA allowed	5.0 #62	8.5 #88	13.5 #82	4.8 #44	4.8 #27	9.6 #26

MIA scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.8 #3	8.9 #52	19.7 #17	11.5 #2	13.8 #1	25.3 #1
WAKE allowed	6.0 #93	11.7 #125	17.7 #118	6.6 #94	8.2 #109	14.8 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.