Indiana @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F11 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

10-0 · Power #10

final

Final

Ohio State

9-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -10.5

✓ OSU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 21–31 OSU

✓ OSU (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -11.5

CloseOSU -10.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -11.5

1 → IU

CloseOSU -10.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -11.5 · closed OSU -10.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel OSU -11

model OSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 39% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -11.5

CloseOSU -10.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 38–15; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 10.8; 54.4 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-9	23–45	L	O56
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Loose	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-9	10–20	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WWWWL	8-2	80%	3-0	—
OSU LLWWL	5-5	50%	3-3	5-5

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOUOU	7-3	70%	10-0
OSU OUUUU	4-6	40%	9-1

Went over in Q4. Of 376 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
OSU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IU 13–82 OSU (5 tied) OSU leads · 100 games since 1901 · OSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	Ohio State 23 @ Indiana 3	OSU -27.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−3.2 →+16.8▲ 20.0#11

OSU+21.3 →+24.6▲ 3.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

OSU

Offense

Even

#10

Defense

Even

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ IU better

+0.5 #32

66 plays #83

Pace

◀ IU faster

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.9 #2	10.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.90 #9	4.29 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #6	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	55% #2	36% #14	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #12	13.8 #7	Even
Yards / play	7.11 #3	4.18 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.46 #1	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	53% #3	37% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.4 #12	13.5 #2	22.9 #4	9.2 #15	11.8 #3	21.0 #2
OSU allowed	2.6 #14	4.3 #10	6.9 #6	0.9 #1	2.5 #2	3.4 #1

OSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.3 #37	12.9 #5	20.2 #15	12.1 #1	5.5 #108	17.6 #12
IU allowed	1.3 #2	6.2 #40	7.5 #9	3.7 #21	2.6 #3	6.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.