Penn State @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F2 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Penn State

9-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

6-4 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

PSU -11.5

✓ MINN W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 27–16 MINN

✓ PSU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -11.5

ClosePSU -11.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -11.5

no move

ClosePSU -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -11.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -11

model PSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (91 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -11.5

ClosePSU -11.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as an 11.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 26–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 11.6; 52.8 points a game (usually 55). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	ORE @ WIS 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	16–13	L	U49.5
Close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LWLWW	4-5	44%	3-1	4-4
MINN WWWWL	7-3	70%	4-2	2-2

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUUUO	3-6	33%	9-1
MINN UUOUO	5-5	50%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 271 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	9-1 90%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+19.9▲ 1.1#8

MINN−1.4 →+7.2▲ 8.6#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PSU

Longer bar = better

MINN

#14

Offense

◀ PSU better

#72

#12

Defense

Even

#25

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+1.2 #7

64 plays #101

Pace

◀ PSU faster

63 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #35	17.7 #12	MINN
Yards / play	7.07 #5	4.82 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	+0.02 #24	Even
Success rate	52% #4	39% #42	PSU

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MINN off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #84	13.6 #6	PSU
Yards / play	5.33 #102	4.57 #7	PSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.01 #23	PSU
Success rate	45% #45	36% #13	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.5 #77	10.6 #27	16.1 #45	9.0 #17	7.6 #49	16.6 #26
MINN allowed	2.8 #16	6.1 #38	8.9 #20	3.3 #16	5.5 #41	8.8 #19

MINN scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.5 #95	8.9 #55	13.4 #75	5.2 #84	8.1 #44	13.3 #69
PSU allowed	3.4 #24	5.3 #19	8.7 #18	1.2 #2	3.7 #8	4.9 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.