BYU @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

BYU

9-1 · Power #22

final

Final

Arizona State

8-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -3.5

✓ ASU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 23–26 ASU

✓ ASU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -3.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -3.5

no move

CloseASU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -3.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -1

model ASU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (188 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -3.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 3.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 28–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 3.7; 45.3 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5	23–0	W	U47
Very close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	12–36	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WLWLL	5-3	63%	3-1	4-0
ASU WLWWW	8-2	80%	5-0	5-0

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OOOOU	5-3	63%	9-1
ASU UUOOU	5-5	50%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 327 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	9-1 90%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BYU 8–21 ASU ASU leads · 29 games since 1935 · ASU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →+9.5▲ 13.6#25

ASU−3.3 →+8.0▲ 11.3#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BYU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#46

Offense

Even

#38

#32

Defense

◀ BYU better

#48

+0.9 #18

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #15

65 plays #87

Pace

ASU faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #40	22.8 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #48	5.13 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.07 #49	Even
Success rate	44% #59	41% #57	Even

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #44	19.5 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #66	4.89 #27	BYU
PPA / play	+0.21 #30	+0.02 #29	Even
Success rate	48% #13	40% #49	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.6 #47	9.5 #47	16.1 #45	9.9 #10	5.6 #108	15.5 #39
ASU allowed	5.1 #67	6.8 #53	11.9 #61	4.4 #39	6.5 #67	10.9 #44

ASU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.5 #37	10.7 #25	18.2 #27	6.8 #51	5.8 #102	12.6 #78
BYU allowed	3.1 #21	8.0 #77	11.1 #43	2.3 #6	6.1 #60	8.4 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.