Arizona State @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

9-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

4-7 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

ASU -7.5

✓ ASU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 30–23 ARIZ

✓ ASU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -9

CloseASU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -9

1.5 → ARIZ

CloseASU -7.5

1.5 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -9 · closed ASU -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward ARIZmodel ASU -6.5

model ASU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (133 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -9

CloseASU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 7.5-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 49–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 6.9; 57 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	38–17	W	O54
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LWWWW	9-2	82%	3-2	6-0
ARIZ LLLWL	2-9	18%	1-5	1-4

Venue/role: ASU away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UOOUO	6-5	55%	9-2
ARIZ UOOUO	5-6	45%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 373 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
ARIZ	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 45–43 ARIZ (1 tied) ASU leads · 89 games since 1931 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Arizona 59 @ Arizona State 23	ARIZ -13.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+8.1▲ 11.4#33

ARIZ+9.2 →−0.7▼ 9.9#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ASU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#39

Offense

◀ ASU better

#96

#56

Defense

◀ ASU better

#95

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

−0.3 #92

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ ASU faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #51	30.2 #104	ASU
Yards / play	5.83 #64	6.01 #100	ASU
PPA / play	+0.20 #29	+0.13 #85	ASU
Success rate	49% #10	43% #89	ASU

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	ARIZ off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #110	22.8 #51	ASU
Yards / play	5.65 #79	5.31 #47	ASU
PPA / play	+0.11 #78	+0.06 #46	ASU
Success rate	39% #115	42% #79	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.5 #32	11.0 #23	18.5 #24	6.8 #56	5.3 #114	12.1 #86
ARIZ allowed	7.3 #113	9.7 #106	17.0 #117	6.5 #90	6.6 #69	13.2 #77

ARIZ scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	5.3 #79	4.1 #128	9.4 #121	7.2 #44	6.5 #82	13.7 #66
ASU allowed	4.6 #55	6.5 #45	11.1 #43	5.3 #59	6.5 #65	11.7 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.