Memphis @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

9-2 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Tulane

9-2 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

TULN -12.5

✓ MEM W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 20–33 TULN

✗ TULN (82%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -13.5

CloseTULN -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -13.5

1 → MEM

CloseTULN -12.5

1 pt toward Memphis

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -13.5 · closed TULN -12.5 · moved 1 toward MEMmodel TULN -13.5

model TULN -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 47% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (126 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -13.5

CloseTULN -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 12.5-point home favorite against MEM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MEM won 34–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 11.3; 58.9 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	22–23	L	U55.5
Very close	UCF vs COLO 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-12.5	21–48	L	O60.5
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	63–17	W	O54
Close	BYU vs OKST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-8.5	38–35	L	O53
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-13	41–20	W	O57
Close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LLLLW	5-6	45%	2-2	1-0
TULN LWWWW	9-2	82%	4-1	8-1

Venue/role: MEM away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOOUO	5-6	45%	9-2
TULN UOUOU	6-5	55%	9-2

Went over in Q4. Of 340 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TULN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MEM 25–17 TULN (1 tied) MEM leads · 43 games since 1954 · TULN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2023	Tulane 31 @ Memphis 21	TULN -4.5	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+1.3▼ 0.7#65

TULN+1.3 →+11.3▲ 10.0#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MEM

Longer bar = better

TULN

#37

Offense

TULN better ▶

#15

#52

Defense

TULN better ▶

#15

+1.2 #5

Turnovers

Even

+1.2 #6

72 plays #12

Pace

◀ MEM faster

67 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	MEM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #20	17.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #46	4.95 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #27	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	44% #53	36% #14	TULN

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #4	22.6 #46	TULN
Yards / play	6.51 #20	5.59 #69	TULN
PPA / play	+0.31 #9	+0.09 #64	TULN
Success rate	47% #26	38% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.3 #38	11.3 #21	18.5 #25	6.5 #55	10.3 #10	16.7 #22
TULN allowed	2.4 #9	5.3 #18	7.6 #7	3.5 #18	5.8 #52	9.4 #24

TULN scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.1 #22	12.4 #9	20.5 #13	9.7 #12	10.3 #10	20.0 #2
MEM allowed	5.0 #64	5.6 #21	10.6 #35	3.9 #27	8.1 #102	12.0 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.