Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

2-9 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-8 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

FAU -2.5

✓ FAU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 28–26 TLSA

✓ FAU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -1

CloseFAU -2.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFAU -1

1.5 → FAU

CloseFAU -2.5

1.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FAU -1 · closed FAU -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward FAUmodel FAU -3.5

model FAU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (151 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -1

CloseFAU -2.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 2.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 63–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 4.1; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT @ FIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	45–33	W	O60.75
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Very close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Very close	HAW @ USU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–55	L	O62
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	14–16	L	U56
Close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	47–24	W	O50
Close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-6	21–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLLLL	3-8	27%	1-4	1-3
TLSA LWLWL	4-7	36%	2-3	4-6

Venue/role: FAU away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OOOUO	7-4	64%	2-9
TLSA UOOOO	7-4	64%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 319 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
TLSA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FAU 1–0 TLSA FAU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FAU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Tulsa 17 @ Florida Atlantic 20	FAU -4	TLSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−6.9 →−14.3▼ 7.4#122

TLSA−9.9 →−21.0▼ 11.1#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FAU

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#103

Offense

Even

#110

#95

Defense

◀ FAU better

#119

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.5 #110

67 plays #65

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

73 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #114	40.6 #134	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #87	6.83 #134	FAU
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.26 #129	FAU
Success rate	39% #114	42% #78	TLSA

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #90	31.5 #110	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #101	6.22 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	+0.13 #89	FAU
Success rate	35% #132	42% #69	FAU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	3.7 #114	8.4 #65	12.1 #96	6.3 #61	4.2 #129	10.5 #112
TLSA allowed	9.8 #131	13.5 #132	23.4 #133	9.8 #131	7.5 #87	17.3 #122

TLSA scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.1 #125	7.5 #86	10.5 #112	5.6 #75	9.4 #20	15.0 #47
FAU allowed	7.0 #107	7.5 #65	14.5 #92	7.4 #108	9.5 #120	16.8 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.