North Texas @ Temple: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Temple · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F9 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Texas

5-6 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Temple

3-8 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

UNT -10.5

✓ TEM W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 37–26 TEM

✓ UNT (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -12.5

CloseUNT -10.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -12.5

2 → TEM

CloseUNT -10.5

2 pts toward Temple

Total

Open63.5

no move

Close63.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -12.5 · closed UNT -10.5 · moved 2 toward TEMmodel UNT -9

model UNT -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 53% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -12.5

CloseUNT -10.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 10.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 63.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 10.1; 56.5 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Close	CMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	28–21	L	U60.5
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Close	CCU @ ARST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	27–17	W	U59.5
Close	WKU @ ODU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	43–20	W	U66.75
Close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	49–7	W	U57.25
Close	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Close	LT @ FIU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	34–42	L	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-2	2-3
TEM WLLWL	5-6	45%	4-1	3-6

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; TEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OOUOU	7-3	70%	5-6
TEM UOOUO	7-4	64%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 42% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
TEM	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 1–0 TEM UNT leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Temple 14 @ North Texas 45	UNT -6.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.3 →−6.4▼ 0.1#96

TEM−13.8 →−17.6▼ 3.8#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UNT

Longer bar = better

TEM

#38

Offense

◀ UNT better

#130

#118

Defense

Even

#106

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−0.8 #125

73 plays #11

Pace

◀ UNT faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #21	36.5 #128	UNT
Yards / play	6.77 #9	6.16 #107	UNT
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.19 #109	UNT
Success rate	44% #61	42% #80	Even

When TEM has the ball

Even matchup

	TEM off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #125	36.1 #126	Even
Yards / play	4.64 #132	6.28 #115	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.21 #113	Even
Success rate	33% #135	46% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.2 #21	8.4 #65	16.5 #38	11.0 #3	7.4 #58	18.4 #6
TEM allowed	7.0 #106	12.3 #128	19.3 #126	9.9 #131	7.3 #80	17.2 #123

TEM scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	2.4 #132	6.3 #111	8.6 #125	4.2 #110	6.7 #77	10.9 #107
UNT allowed	8.7 #125	12.6 #130	21.4 #130	6.5 #91	8.2 #104	14.7 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.