Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 1:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff24°F12 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

5-6 · Power #120

final

Final

Western Michigan

5-6 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -6.5

✓ WMU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 25–31 WMU

✓ WMU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -6.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -6.5

no move

CloseWMU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -6.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -5

model WMU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (146 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -6.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 6.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 26–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 6.1; 54.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLWLL	7-4	64%	3-2	4-2
WMU WWLLL	4-7	36%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOUO	6-5	55%	5-6
WMU OOOUU	7-4	64%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
WMU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

EMU 0–1 WMU WMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Western Michigan 45 @ Eastern Michigan 21	WMU -3	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−13.3 →−12.9▲ 0.4#119

WMU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

EMU

Longer bar = better

WMU

#100

Offense

WMU better ▶

#46

#96

Defense

◀ EMU better

#119

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.5 #34

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ EMU faster

62 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #83	32.6 #115	EMU
Yards / play	5.08 #120	6.31 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.22 #116	Even
Success rate	42% #80	48% #128	EMU

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #53	28.1 #94	WMU
Yards / play	6.09 #49	6.28 #116	WMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #44	+0.10 #68	WMU
Success rate	45% #36	45% #105	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.3 #78	5.8 #118	11.1 #105	7.5 #37	7.5 #53	15.0 #46
WMU allowed	6.5 #101	10.6 #120	17.2 #117	8.2 #119	7.3 #81	15.5 #109

WMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	6.0 #61	10.1 #34	16.1 #39	7.2 #43	6.5 #85	13.6 #64
EMU allowed	3.4 #17	9.9 #110	13.3 #77	4.5 #38	10.1 #125	14.5 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.