Oklahoma State @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff27°F3 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oklahoma State

3-8 · Power #87

final

Final

Colorado

8-3 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -14.5

✓ COLO W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 24–39 COLO

✓ COLO (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -17

CloseCOLO -14.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -17

2.5 → OKST

CloseCOLO -14.5

2.5 pts toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open64.5

▲ 2

Close66.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -17 · closed COLO -14.5 · moved 2.5 toward OKSTmodel COLO -19.5

model COLO -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 53% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -17

CloseCOLO -14.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 14.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 52–0; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 66.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.7 against an average line of 14.2; 66.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	UTSA vs USF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	49–21	W	O66.5
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Close	PITT vs UVA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-13	48–38	L	O67.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Close	TCU vs OKST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	38–13	W	U68.5
Close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Close	WASH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	49–39	L	O71.5
Close	UTSA vs LT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	51–7	W	U68.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WLLLL	3-8	27%	2-3	1-6
COLO WWWWL	8-2	80%	4-1	5-2

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OOOUO	7-4	64%	3-8
COLO UOOOU	7-3	70%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 37% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
COLO	7-3 70%	8-1 89%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OKST 20–27 COLO (1 tied) COLO leads · 48 games since 1920 · COLO has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →−3.3▼ 7.4#79

COLO+0.6 →+9.1▲ 8.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

OKST

Longer bar = better

COLO

#52

Offense

Even

#41

#124

Defense

COLO better ▶

#47

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+0.7 #20

67 plays #64

Pace

◀ OKST faster

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #55	24.0 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #65	5.31 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	+0.04 #38	Even
Success rate	45% #47	39% #43	Even

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #33	34.1 #119	COLO
Yards / play	6.06 #51	6.83 #133	COLO
PPA / play	+0.19 #38	+0.28 #132	COLO
Success rate	45% #43	45% #110	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.6 #117	9.2 #48	12.8 #87	5.5 #79	10.6 #9	16.1 #29
COLO allowed	7.6 #117	7.7 #71	15.4 #102	3.5 #16	5.2 #36	8.6 #16

COLO scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.6 #33	8.6 #59	16.3 #39	8.2 #23	7.8 #46	16.0 #31
OKST allowed	6.5 #102	10.4 #118	16.9 #115	6.6 #99	10.5 #129	17.2 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.